Economist Says Fear Of a U.S. Recession Is Overblown
Fears that the United States is on the brink of entering into an economic recession are unfounded, writes Provasi Capital Partners' Chief Global Strategist Rick Golod in his latest investment outlook. Golod cites several indicators that the U.S. economy is growing slowly, but not declining, including:
Indicators that suggest job growth will continue at a healthy rate, perhaps driving unemployment figures to a mid-4% level before the end of Q2 2016. A number of bell-weathers (the Chicago Fed National Activities index, the ECRI weekly growth index, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator index, the CB Diffusion index and the Coincident to Lagging Indicator index) that all indicate below-trend growth, but no recession. Bank loan growth that has continued to develop at a 7% pace the past four months. Lower energy prices and consumer loan interest rates that should boost consumer confidence and encourage future spending. Declining energy prices are not an economic "canary in the coal mine." While energy and mining sector shed 131,000 jobs, the rest of the economy added a respectable 2.65 million jobs last year.
Furthermore, as referenced in the included chart, Golod notes that the U.S. economy has not fallen into a recession when nominal GDP is greater than the 10-year Treasury Bond yield.
"If investors had a dime for every recent headline warning of an impending U.S. recession, they wouldn't have to worry about portfolio construction," says Golod.
As the chief global strategist for the firm, Golod speaks at national conferences and industry round tables. He regularly hosts educational Webcasts for financial advisors and broker-dealers, is active on Twitter @RickGolod, and provides insights and analysis of global market trends.